How and When Will the Bond Bubble Burst as a result of Bernancke's QE2.(Quantitative Easing) and Inflation!
85Eye on United States Bond Market
Follow up on Quantitative Easing and it's possible results!
Inflation in it's truest form! That's what these numbers seem to say to me. Commodity prices going up, up and away! Like said in the above video, Wal Mart and other stores are ready to raise prices again. The last thirty years is history especially regarding our economy! As bad as it is now can it really get worse? I tend to think so. I doubt the lame-duck period will do much good either! So what do we do, sit patiently and wait to see what happens? Hope and prey for the best? More small banks are failing, the housing market IS the worst it has been in our history, food prices are rising daily, and if you're working I don't believe you're in for a raise anytime soon. Unions are trying to get their hands in on our police and fire departments after cities across the country are cutting back what I consider the most necessary of funding. Why aren't politicians forced to take reductions, they are after all only part-time employee's and the tax payers sign their pay stubs?
Treasury rates are rising as a result of the Quantitative Easing 2, the opposite effect Mr. Ben Bernanke claimed it would have. The Federal Reserve is ready to purchase unimaginable amounts of newly issued treasury bonds and municipality bonds with what money? The money made magically from quantitative easing! Listen to the numbers talked about in this video from the National Inflation Association and put them with what you already know, does it give you the feeling that the worst is yet to come! Maybe not tomorrow, or next week, or even in the next year, but look two three and four years down the road! The economy is a mess and it seems the Federal reserve forgot to put the lid on the blender before pressing the on button. To me all of this just shows that the government's stimulus good effects are done and the bad effects have made their way down river. Ben Bernanke didn't build a dam with Quantitative easing, but rather tossed a few more oars in the raft to help us through the rapids. Unfortunately it appears we're heading through these rapids without a life vest! So i must ask how long are these white water's and what happens if we hit a rock and sink the raft!? Inflation in China and Ireland and economic troubles in England and France and Greece and most everywhere in the world right now. Looks like the world is riding the same damned river and if one of these countries including the United States makes another wrong move, its going to be a long ride with stormy weather to boot!
National Inflation Association
- National Inflation Association
Preparing Americans for Hyperinflation
- The Federal Reserve crushing the middle class with more "Quantitative Easing"!
Simply put, Quantitative Easing is when the Federal Reserve turns the presses on, prints our currency, cuts the sheets and sends the new money to market. Ultimately pushing inflation. Not such a good idea from...
In a Healthy Economy, maybe, but now!
Let's just say our economy is in a state of good health. Quantitative easing would have benefits like availability of credit, and lower credit costs which encourage business's to borrow and expand and people to spend. But that's not the boat we're in! The consumer economy is very low and there is little demand for replacing the goods we already have, therefor businesses won't borrow despite available low credit costs because of the lack of market demand. On top of all that households and businesses alike are floating on a river of debt! Where does this leave us? Waiting to see what effects Quantitative Easing and Zero-interest rate policies will have the bond, equity and commodities markets. All of which are "inflating" already, leaving us waiting for them to "deflate", or very possibly "hyperinflate"!
So even after the big banks were saved by the stimulus they are essentially receiving another opportunity to fail again without fear, knowing the Federal Reserve has already put in place the means of protecting them! So they can just sell these bonds and treasuries to the Fed without risk to themselves. This in turn creates a pouring rain that widens, deepens and increases the flow of the raging river of economic crisis already facing the middle-class! In no way will this create a spending spree from the consumer as they'll have to cut costs across the materials board just to buy the necessary commodities such as food. No spending increase from consumers, no increase in product demand, then how can businesses expect to expand to create more jobs and so on! Businesses don't expand and guess what the stock market feels the chill of the waters! Quantitative easing is a down-hill spiral that the middle-class can't afford, and the current stock market will eventually have to come back down from. Quantitative Easing is a solution to certain problems like high credit costs and limited availability of credit but is no way a solution to our large amount of debt and lack of market demand. This is high school economics here, the basics of supply and demand. That leaves me to questions of why the federal reserve implemented round two of Quantitative Easing and what really is their ulterior motives for doing so. Are we being led slowly to a "world currency"?
In need of an Economics Education?
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Do the numbers really add up?
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http://hubpages.com/hub/Quantitative-Easing-Explained - by http://hubpages.com/profile/The+Rising+Glory
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I believe you are mistaken again. If you are suggesting that people are saving by not paying their debts, they would be more leveraged. Consumer leverage is tracked by a few different measures, one is the debt service ratio. This number is calculated by figuring the percentage of required debt payments to disposable income. If people weren't paying their debts, their debt load and this ratio would increase. It has been decreasing. When we were going into the recession in the last quarter of 2007 the ratio stood at 13.90. In the second quarter of 2010, it stood at 12.13 (Federal Reserve). Clearly, people are paying off their debts and they are saving too.
Here is the Fed source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/
You've asked several questions. First, yes, I do believe quantitative easing will be beneficial and here is why: By buying bonds, the central bank is helping banks increase their reserves which acts as an incentive to lend money - something that hasn't been happening despite rock bottom interest rates (the Fed's usual lever).
I didn't bring up the savings rate, it was implicit in your hub and it was erroneous. You used it as factual background ("rivers of debt"), but it was wrong. I used the link because your response to my comment suggested that people were just hanging on to money rather than paying debt. No, the numbers in my link don't have anything to do with inflation or deflation; they are precisely about debt and savings.
Your hub is riddled with inflation hysteria, but the consumer price index's all-items index for October rose .2%, the entire year's rate through October is 1.2%. How is that hyperinflation or the debasing of the dollar? Because turkey prices went up around Thanksgiving?
The danger of inflation comes from an increased money supply chasing fewer goods - neither of which is happening. The Fed's QE2 hasn't and won't increase the money supply - they write IOU's and can sell the bonds back (which would cancel any apparent creation of money).
Brupie 9 days ago
You've asked several questions. First, yes, I do believe quantitative easing will be beneficial and here is why: By buying bonds, the central bank is helping banks increase their reserves which acts as an incentive to lend money - something that hasn't been happening despite rock bottom interest rates (the Fed's usual lever).
I didn't bring up the savings rate, it was implicit in your hub and it was erroneous. You used it as factual background ("rivers of debt"), but it was wrong. I used the link because your response to my comment suggested that people were just hanging on to money rather than paying debt. No, the numbers in my link don't have anything to do with inflation or deflation; they are precisely about debt and savings.
Your hub is riddled with inflation hysteria, but the consumer price index's all-items index for October rose .2%, the entire year's rate through October is 1.2%. How is that hyperinflation or the debasing of the dollar? Because turkey prices went up around Thanksgiving?
The danger of inflation comes from an increased money supply chasing fewer goods - neither of which is happening. The Fed's QE2 hasn't and won't increase the money supply - they write IOU's and can sell the bonds back (which would cancel any apparent creation of money).
Brupie 9 days ago
You've asked several questions. First, yes, I do believe quantitative easing will be beneficial and here is why: By buying bonds, the central bank is helping banks increase their reserves which acts as an incentive to lend money - something that hasn't been happening despite rock bottom interest rates (the Fed's usual lever).
I didn't bring up the savings rate, it was implicit in your hub and it was erroneous. You used it as factual background ("rivers of debt"), but it was wrong. I used the link because your response to my comment suggested that people were just hanging on to money rather than paying debt. No, the numbers in my link don't have anything to do with inflation or deflation; they are precisely about debt and savings.
Your hub is riddled with inflation hysteria, but the consumer price index's all-items index for October rose .2%, the entire year's rate through October is 1.2%. How is that hyperinflation or the debasing of the dollar? Because turkey prices went up around Thanksgiving?
The danger of inflation comes from an increased money supply chasing fewer goods - neither of which is happening. The Fed's QE2 hasn't and won't increase the money supply - they write IOU's and can sell the bonds back (which would cancel any apparent creation of money).
This a very interesting and well-written hub. It poses quite a few interesting questions, and theories, but it also strikes at the very core of the economy. Great work, as always.











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Brupie Level 2 Commenter 18 months ago
I disagree with you about the dangers of inflation and the current state of inflation especially those ideas expressed in the NIA video.
It is easy to find examples of products and product classes that have inflation at any given time. Inflation in health care and education are pretty old news, and not accelerating. It is also easy to find counter examples, e.g. housing prices, milk, gas, pork, wheat, and computers. I would say my list contains as many more primary consumables than the NIA video does - most Americans eat more pork than turkey, and pay for housing more often than go to college or to the doctor. Do you remember $4 a gallon gas?
As to your comments in your section headed by "In a Healthy Economy Maybe ... ", you said, "... consumers and businesses are floating in rivers of debt." This is simply inaccurate. The U.S. savings rate for consumers has improved considerably. The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has been above 5% for the last eight quarters. Prior to that, it had been below 4% since before 2004 and often below 2% (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Corporations have been hording cash, and now find themselves trying to figure out how to spend it, unfortunately hiring has not been their choice. The excess corporate cash has largely gone into mergers and aquisitions.